St. Joseph's
Boys - Girls
2021 - 2022 - 2023
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State Rank #71
New Haven Semi-State Rank #19
Elkhart Central Regional Rank #6
Riley Sectional Rank #6
Most Likely Finish 6th place at Regionals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.0%
Advance to State Finals 0.0%
Advance to Semi-State 48.2%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating Northern Indiana Conf. Stomp Northwood Invite South Bend City New Prairie Kickoff Classic New Prairie Invitational Culver Invitational NLC / NIC Riley Sectional Elkhart Regional New Haven Semi-State
Date 8/20 8/27 9/1 9/6 9/17 9/24 10/1 10/8 10/15 10/22
Team Rating 776 784 755 777 746 759 858 948 845 866
Team Adjusted Rating 756 755 768 712 759 801 794 781 802
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Northern Indiana Conf. Stomp Northwood Invite South Bend City New Prairie Kickoff Classic New Prairie Invitational Culver Invitational NLC / NIC Riley Sectional Elkhart Regional New Haven Semi-State
427  Hypatia Hamkins 11 21:16 21:47 21:29 21:30 21:30 21:08 20:58 21:01 21:22 21:18
512  Tess Collins 12 21:28 21:02 21:11 21:03 21:51 21:15 22:06
640  Izzy Frabutt 9 21:51 21:57 21:56 21:30 21:24 21:39 22:17 22:07 21:36 21:50
719  Mia Ritschard 12 22:03 22:37 21:53 21:39 21:25 22:15 22:10 22:13 22:15 22:11
738  Ava Rousseve 12 22:05 21:24 21:28 21:28 22:13 21:58 22:33 22:33
896  Margaret Hopkins 12 22:29 23:03 22:32 22:54 22:05 22:36 22:42 22:26 22:18
928  Lexi Juday 12 22:33 22:02 22:23 22:25 22:36 22:45 22:54
1,114  Cam Ritschard 10 22:57 20:55 22:30 22:33 22:33 22:46 22:41 23:29 24:12
1,138  Meg Baxter 11 22:59 20:26 23:21 22:44 23:23 22:44 22:53 22:39 23:27
1,193  Annie Cummings 9 23:07 22:40 23:01 23:39
1,230  Molly Bellia 11 23:13 22:20 22:55 22:15 22:39 24:12 24:10
Sophia Helfrich 10 23:34 24:07 23:55 23:23 23:46 23:11
Kiley McGuire 12 23:40 22:23 23:54 24:00 22:41 24:13 23:54




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 0.0%
Semi-State 48.2% 15.1 414 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.0 4.6 6.6 9.0 10.2 6.2 3.8 1.5 0.4
Regionals 100% 5.4 156 7.9 15.5 24.8 36.0 11.0 3.7 1.0 0.1
Sectionals 100% 3.5 96 12.8 26.8 60.2 0.2



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team made it.



Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Hypatia Hamkins 73.7% 91.6 49.2% 62.1%
Tess Collins 56.7% 101.8 16.4% 29.6%
Izzy Frabutt 48.4% 122.6 0.4% 3.0%
Mia Ritschard 48.3% 131.4 0.0% 0.5%
Ava Rousseve 48.3% 133.2 0.0% 0.3%
Margaret Hopkins 48.2% 146.0 0.0% 0.0%
Lexi Juday 48.2% 148.1 0.0% 0.0%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Hypatia Hamkins 100% 25.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.9 3.0 4.4 5.4 6.3 6.2 6.4 6.3 6.7 100.0%
Tess Collins 100% 30.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.6 1.9 2.6 3.3 3.6 4.1 100.0%
Izzy Frabutt 100% 38.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 100.0%
Mia Ritschard 100% 42.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Ava Rousseve 100% 43.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Margaret Hopkins 100% 52.6 100.0%
Lexi Juday 100% 54.7 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Hypatia Hamkins 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.2 5.0 17.9 20.0 17.6 13.1 9.9 6.7 3.7 1.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tess Collins 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 4.1 9.4 13.0 14.8 14.6 14.6 13.2 7.6 3.9 1.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1
Izzy Frabutt 19.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.8 4.7 7.1 10.2 14.2 15.3 12.9 10.7 7.6 5.7 3.1
Mia Ritschard 22.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.9 3.8 6.4 9.1 12.2 12.9 12.9 11.0 9.5
Ava Rousseve 22.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.7 5.2 7.8 10.8 12.3 12.8 12.5 10.1
Margaret Hopkins 28.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.9 4.6 7.2
Lexi Juday 29.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.7 2.9 5.1